Dota resoda rinoita basa guru mumaindasitiri mazhinji, indasitiri yegirazi ichitora chikamu chinosvika 60% chezvinodyiwa pasi rose.
Girazi repepa ndiro chikamu chikuru chemusika wegirazi, uye girazi remumagaba ndiro chikamu chechipiri pakukura chemusika wegirazi (Mufananidzo 1). Magirazi ezuva anoshandiswa mumapaneru ezuva ndiyo nzvimbo iri kukura nekukurumidza.
Muna 2023, kukura kwezvinodiwa neChina kuchasvika pakakwirira kupfuura kare kwe10%, nekukura kwese kwe2.9 miriyoni matani. Kudiwa kwepasi rose kunze kweChina kwakaderera ne3.2%.
Kugona kugadzira madota esoda kucharamba kwakadzikama pakati pa2018 na2022, sezvo mapurojekiti mazhinji ekuwedzera akarongwa akanonoka nekuda kwedenda reCOVID-19. Kutaura zvazviri, China yakarasikirwa nemagetsi esoda ash munguva iyi.
Zvisinei, kukura kukuru munguva pfupi iri kutevera kuchabva kuChina, kusanganisira matani mamiriyoni mashanu ekugadzirwa kwezvirimwa zvitsva (zvechisikigo) izvo zvichatanga kuwedzera pakati pa2023.
Mapurojekiti ese makuru ekuwedzera muUS munguva pfupi yapfuura akaitwa neGenesis, iyo ichange iine huwandu hwematani angangoita mamiriyoni 1.2 panosvika kupera kwa2023.
Panosvika gore ra2028, matani mamiriyoni gumi nemasere emvura itsva anotarisirwa kuwedzerwa pasi rose, 61% ichibva kuChina uye 34% ichibva kuUS.
Sezvo kugona kugadzira zvinhu kuri kuwedzera, tekinoroji inochinjawo. Chikamu chesoda ash yechisikigo chiri kukura. Chikamu chayo muhuwandu hwekugadzira zvinhu pasi rose chinotarisirwa kusvika 22% panosvika gore ra2028.
Mari yekugadzira soda ash yechisikigo inowanzova yakaderera zvakanyanya pane yesynthetic soda ash. Saka, shanduko mune tekinoroji inochinjawo mutengo wepasi rose. Makwikwi anoenderana nekuwanikwa, uye nzvimbo yenzvimbo itsva inokanganisawo kukwikwidzana.
Soda ash ikemikari inoshandiswa zvakanyanya mukushandiswa kwekupedzisira iyo ine chekuita nehupenyu hwedu hwezuva nezuva. Saka, kukura kwekudiwa kwesoda ash kwagara kuchikonzerwa nehupfumi huri kusimukira. Zvisinei, kudiwa kwesoda ash hakuchaitwi nekukura kwehupfumi chete; chikamu chezvakatipoteredza chiri kubatsirawo zvakanyanya mukukura kwekudiwa kwesoda ash.
Zvisinei, mukana wekushandisa soda ash mukushandiswa uku kwakaoma kufanotaura. Mikana yekushandisa soda ash mumabhatiri, kusanganisira mabhatiri e lithium-ion, yakaoma kunzwisisa.
Izvi ndizvo zvinoitikawo kumagirazi ezuva, uye masangano esimba epasi rose ari kugara achigadzirisa mafungiro avo esimba rezuva zvichikwira.
Kutengeserana kunoita basa guru mukugadzirwa kwedota resoda, sezvo nzvimbo dzekugadzira dzisiri pedyo nenzvimbo dzinodiwa zvakanyanya, uye chikamu chimwe muzvina chedota resoda chinotakurwa pakati penzvimbo huru.
United States, Türkiye neChina inyika dzakakosha muindasitiri iyi nekuda kwesimba radzo pamusika wekutakura zvinhu. Kune vagadziri vekuAmerica, kudiwa kwezvinhu kubva kumisika yekutumira zvinhu kunze kwenyika ndicho chinhu chikuru chinoita kuti zvinhu zvikure kupfuura musika wemuno wakura.
Pachivanhu, vagadziri vekuAmerica vakasimudzira kugadzirwa kwavo nekuwedzera zvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, zvichibatsirwa nehurongwa hwemitengo inokwikwidzana. Misika mikuru yekutumira zvinhu inosanganisira dzimwe nyika dzeAsia (kunze kweChina neIndian subcontinent) neSouth America.
Kunyangwe hazvo China ine chikamu chidiki mukutengeserana kwepasi rose, ine simba guru pamusika wepasi rose wesoda ash nekuda kwekuchinja-chinja kwekutengeserana kwayo kunze kwenyika, sezvatakatoona gore rino.
Sezvambotaurwa pamusoro apa, China yakawedzera huwandu hwakawanda hwezvinhu muna 2023 na2024, zvichiwedzera tarisiro yekuti zvinhu zvakawanda zvaizotengeswa, asi zvinhu zvinotengeswa kubva kuChina zvakasvika padanho repamusoro muhafu yekutanga ya2024.
Panguva imwe chete, zvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika muUS zvakakwira ne13% gore negore mumwedzi mishanu yekutanga yegore rino, uye purofiti huru yakabva kuChina.
Kukura kwezvinodiwa muChina muna 2023 kuchave kwakasimba zvikuru, kusvika pamatani angangoita mamiriyoni 31.4, zvichinyanya kukonzerwa negirazi rinoshandisa simba rezuva.
Kugona kweChina kugadzira soda ash kuchawedzera nematani mamiriyoni mashanu nehafu muna 2024, zvichipfuura zvaitarisirwa munguva pfupi iri kutevera pakudiwa kutsva.
Zvisinei, kukura kwezvinodiwa kwakapfuura zvakare zvaitarisirwa gore rino, nekudiwa kuri kukura ne27% gore negore muhafu yekutanga ya2023. Kana kukura kuripo pari zvino kukaramba kuripo, musiyano uripo pakati pekuwanikwa kwezvinhu nekudiwa muChina hauchazove wakakura zvakanyanya.
Nyika iri kuramba ichiwedzera kugona kwekugadzira magirazi ezuva, uye huwandu hwese hunotarisirwa kusvika matani angangoita mamiriyoni makumi mana nematanhatu panosvika Chikunguru 2024.
Zvisinei, vakuru vakuru vekuChina vari kunetseka nezvehuwandu hwemagirazi ezuva anowanikwa uye vari kukurukura nezvemitemo ine chekuita nekudzikisira simba remagetsi. Panguva imwe chete, huwandu hwemagetsi ezuva hwakaiswa muChina hwakawedzera ne29% gore negore kubva muna Ndira kusvika Chivabvu 2024, sekureva kweNational Energy Administration.
Zvisinei, indasitiri yekugadzira mamodule ePV muChina inonzi iri kurasikirwa nebasa, zvichiita kuti mamwe mafekitori madiki ekugadzira amire kana kutomisa kugadzirwa.
Panguva imwe chete, Southeast Asia ine nhamba yakakura yevanounganidza mamodule ePV, mazhinji acho ari evanoisa mari vekuChina, avo vanonyanya kuendesa kumusika weUS PV modules.
Mamwe mafekitori ekugadzira anonzi ambomira kugadzira nekuda kwekubviswa kwemitero yemitero yekupinza zvinhu kunze kwenyika. Nyika dzekuSoutheast Asia ndidzo dzinonyanya kutengeswa magirazi ezuva ekuChina.
Kunyange hazvo kukura kwekudiwa kwemasoda ash muChina kwasvika padanho repamusoro, kudiwa kwemasoda ash kunze kweChina kwakasiyana-siyana. Pazasi pane pfupiso yekudiwa kwemasoda muAsia neAmerica, ichitsanangura mamwe emafambiro aya.
Nhamba dzinobva kunze kwenyika dzinopa chiratidzo chinobatsira chemafambiro ekudiwa kwesoda ash mune dzimwe nzvimbo dzeAsia (kunze kweChina neIndia) nekuda kwekuderera kwesimba rekugadzira zvinhu munharaunda.
Mumwedzi mishanu kusvika mitanhatu yekutanga ya2024, zvinhu zvakatengwa kubva kunze kwenyika zvakasvika matani mamiriyoni maviri, zvinova 4.7% kupfuura munguva imwecheteyo gore rapfuura (Mufananidzo 2).
Magirazi ezuva ndiwo anonyanya kukonzera kudiwa kwemasoda ash muAsia yese, uye magirazi epurasitiki anogonawo kubatsira.
Sezvakaratidzwa paMufananidzo 3, kune mapurojekiti akati wandei emagetsi ezuva nemagirazi akatsetseka akarongwa munharaunda iyi anogona kuwedzera matani angangoita miriyoni imwe emvura itsva yesoda ash.
Zvisinei, indasitiri yemagirazi ezuva inotarisanawo nematambudziko. Mitero yazvino yakadai semitero yekudzivirira marara uye mitero yekudzivirira marara inoiswa neUnited States inogona kukanganisa kugadzirwa kwemamodule emagetsi ezuva munyika dzakadai seVietnam neMalaysia.
Mitengo yezvinhu zvinogadzirwa muChina inoda kuti vagadziri munyika idzi vawane zvinhu zvakakosha kubva kune vatengesi vari kunze kweChina kudzivirira mitengo yakakwira. Izvi zvinowedzera mitengo yekugadzira, zvinoomesa cheni yekugovera, uye pakupedzisira zvinoderedza kukwikwidzana kwemapaneru ePV ekuSoutheast Asia mumusika weUS.
Zvinonzi vagadziri vemapaneru ePV ekuChina kuSoutheast Asia vakamisa kugadzirwa muna Chikumi nekuda kwemitero, uye zvimwe zvingangomira kugadzirwa mumwedzi inotevera.
Dunhu reAmerica (kunze kweUS) rinonyanya kuvimba nezvinhu zvinopinzwa kunze kwenyika. Saka, shanduko huru muzvinhu zvinopinzwa kunze kwenyika inogona kuva chiratidzo chakanaka chekudiwa kuripo.
Ruzivo rwekutengeserana rwechizvino-zvino runoratidza kusashanda zvakanaka kwemitengo yekupinza zvinhu kubva kunze kwemwedzi mishanu kusvika minomwe yekutanga yegore, zvichidzika ne12%, kana kuti matani 285,000 (Mufananidzo 4).
North America, kusvika pari zvino, yakaona kudzikira kukuru, kwakadzikira ne23% kana kuti matani 148,000. Mexico yakaona kudzikira kukuru. Chikamu chikuru chekudiwa kwedoro resoda muMexico, magirazi emumagaba, chakanga chisina kusimba nekuda kwekushaikwa kwedoro zvishoma. Kudiwa kwedoro resoda muMexico hakutarisirwi kuwedzera kusvika muna 2025.
Zvinhu zvinotengeswa kubva kuSouth America zvakadererawo zvakanyanya, ne10% gore negore. Zvinhu zvinotengeswa kuArgentina zvakaderera zvakanyanya, ne63% gore negore.
Zvisinei, nemapurojekiti matsva akati wandei e lithium akarongerwa kutanga kushanda gore rino, zvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika muArgentina zvinofanira kuvandudzika (Mufananidzo 5).
Kutaura zvazviri, lithium carbonate ndiyo inonyanya kukonzera kudiwa kwesoda ash muSouth America. Pasinei nepfungwa dzisina kunaka dziri kuitika munguva pfupi yapfuura pamusoro peindasitiri yelithium senzvimbo inodhura zvishoma, tarisiro yenguva yepakati nerefu yakanaka.
Mitengo yekutengesera zvinhu kunze kwenyika yevatengesi vakuru inoratidza shanduko mukushanduka kwemusika wepasi rose (Mufananidzo 6). Mitengo muChina inowanzo chinja-chinja zvakanyanya.
Muna 2023, avhareji yemutengo wekutengesera kunze kwenyika yeChina yaive US$360 pa metric ton FOB, uye pakutanga kwa2024, mutengo wacho waive US$301 pa metric ton FOB, uye pakazosvika Chikumi, wakadzikira kusvika US$264 pa metric ton FOB.
Zvichakadaro, mutengo wekutengeswa kweTurkey waive US$386 pa metric ton FOB pakutanga kwegore ra2023, US$211 chete pa metric ton FOB panosvika Zvita 2023, uye US$193 chete pa metric ton FOB panosvika Chivabvu 2024.
Kubva muna Ndira kusvika muna Chivabvu 2024, mitengo yekutengesera kunze kwenyika yeUS yaisvika paavhareji yemadhora mazana maviri nemakumi matatu pa metric ton FAS, pasi pemutengo wepagore wemadhora mazana maviri nemakumi mapfumbamwe nemasere pa metric ton FAS muna 2023.
Kazhinji, indasitiri yesoda ash munguva pfupi yapfuura yakaratidza zviratidzo zvekuwanda kwemagetsi. Zvisinei, kana kukura kwezvinodiwa muChina kuri kuramba kuripo, mukana wekuwanda kwemagetsi ungasave wakanyanya sezvaitarisirwa.
Zvisinei, kukura uku kukuru kuri kubva muchikamu chesimba rakachena, chikamu chine mukana wekuti zvinodiwa zvizere zvikwanisike kufanotaura nemazvo.
Chikamu cheruzivo rwemusika wemakemikari cheOPIS, Dow Jones & Company, chichaitisa musangano wepagore wechi17 weSoda Ash Global Conference muMalta kubva Gumiguru 9-11 gore rino. Dingindira remusangano wepagore nderinoti "The Soda Ash Paradox".
Musangano weGlobal Soda Ash Conference (ona kuruboshwe) uchaunganidza nyanzvi dzepasi rose nevatungamiriri vemaindasitiri kubva muzvikamu zvese zvemusika kuti vanzwe fungidziro dzenyanzvi dzeindasitiri yesoda ash nemaindasitiri ane hukama, kukurukura nezvekuchinja kwemusika, matambudziko nemikana, uye kuongorora kukanganisa kwekuchinja kwemafambiro emusika wepasi rose, kusanganisira kuti musika weChina uchakanganisa sei pasi rose.
Vaverengi veGlass International vanogona kuwana dhisikaundi ye10% pamatikiti emusangano vachishandisa kodhi yeGLASS10.
Jess ndiye Mutevedzeri weMupepeti weGlass International. Anga achidzidza kunyora zvine hunyanzvi uye zvehunyanzvi kubvira muna 2017 uye akapedza dhigirii rake muna 2020. Asati ajoina Quartz Business Media, Jess akashanda semunyori akazvimirira kumakambani akasiyana-siyana nemabhuku.